在對(dui)(dui)2019年我(wo)國全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)進行回顧的(de)基(ji)(ji)礎上，本文對(dui)(dui)2020年影(ying)(ying)響全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增長的(de)主(zhu)要相(xiang)關因素（GDP增長、PPI變(bian)化(hua)）進行趨勢分析，并基(ji)(ji)于傳(chuan)統(tong)的(de)年度電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)消費(fei)預測模型，得出無新(xin)冠肺炎(yan)疫(yi)情(qing)(qing)沖(chong)(chong)擊情(qing)(qing)景下(xia)2020年全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)增速區間為(wei)4.5%～5.5%（不考慮極(ji)端氣溫(wen)）。進一步，本文估(gu)算(suan)了新(xin)冠肺炎(yan)疫(yi)情(qing)(qing)對(dui)(dui)2020年全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)可能(neng)造成的(de)沖(chong)(chong)擊，由(you)于新(xin)冠肺炎(yan)疫(yi)情(qing)(qing)仍在發展(zhan)過程中且(qie)實(shi)時經濟統(tong)計數(shu)據不可獲取，傳(chuan)統(tong)短期事件沖(chong)(chong)擊評估(gu)的(de)實(shi)證方法(fa)無法(fa)有效開(kai)展(zhan)，本文將采用(yong)(yong)一種新(xin)的(de)視角對(dui)(dui)新(xin)冠肺炎(yan)疫(yi)情(qing)(qing)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)消費(fei)降(jiang)低效應進行前期預測推斷，預計新(xin)冠肺炎(yan)疫(yi)情(qing)(qing)將影(ying)(ying)響全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)超過750億千瓦時，使得2020年全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)增速降(jiang)至3.5%～4.5%左右，且(qie)存在跌破3%的(de)可能(neng)。具體來(lai)看：
一
2019年我國全社會用電量增長回顧
2019年(nian)我(wo)國全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速較2018年(nian)大幅下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)。2019年(nian)，我(wo)國全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)7.23萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，比上年(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.5%，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速同比下(xia)(xia)滑4個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。分(fen)季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)來(lai)(lai)看，第(di)一(yi)季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)5.5%，較2018年(nian)同期(qi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)4.3個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)；第(di)二(er)季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.5%，較2018年(nian)同期(qi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)4.5個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)；第(di)三季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)3.4%，較2018年(nian)同期(qi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)4.6個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)；第(di)四季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.7%，較2018年(nian)同期(qi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)2.6個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。分(fen)產(chan)(chan)業來(lai)(lai)看，第(di)一(yi)產(chan)(chan)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)780億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.5%；第(di)二(er)產(chan)(chan)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)4.94萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)3.1%；第(di)三產(chan)(chan)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)1.19萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)9.5%；城鄉居(ju)(ju)民(min)生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)1.02萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)5.7%，第(di)三產(chan)(chan)業和(he)城鄉居(ju)(ju)民(min)生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)對全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)貢(gong)獻率為51%。全(quan)(quan)年(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力消(xiao)費增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)呈現(xian)“前高后低”的態勢(shi)，四季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)逐漸“低位企穩”。
二
2020年影響我國全社會用電量增長的主要因素
2020年是(shi)全面建成小康社會和(he)“十三五”規劃收官(guan)之年，既是(shi)決(jue)勝期，也是(shi)攻堅(jian)(jian)期。2019年年底召開(kai)的(de)中央(yang)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)工作會議(yi)明確(que)了2020年“四個堅(jian)(jian)持、一個統(tong)籌”的(de)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)工作基本思(si)路。電力是(shi)國民經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)高質(zhi)量發展(zhan)的(de)重要支撐，準確(que)預測電力消(xiao)費(fei)增長空間(jian)意義重大。本文(wen)將對2020年我(wo)國電力消(xiao)費(fei)水(shui)平(ping)及季度走勢進行研判，以期為國家能(neng)源電力主管部門及相關企業提供決(jue)策參考。
（一）在不考慮疫情的前提下，GDP增長將保持或略低于2019年，預計全年增速為6.1%左右
GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)決(jue)定了電力(li)消費(fei)(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的中樞平臺(tai)區(qu)。追(zhui)趕型經濟(ji)體的發(fa)展經驗表明(ming)，GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的換(huan)擋(dang)伴隨著電力(li)消費(fei)(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)的大幅(fu)下(xia)滑。如(ru)高速(su)(su)追(zhui)趕期，日本電力(li)消費(fei)(fei)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)超(chao)過10%，中速(su)(su)發(fa)展期電力(li)消費(fei)(fei)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)降(jiang)至5%以下(xia)，降(jiang)幅(fu)超(chao)過50%；增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)換(huan)擋(dang)期，韓國電力(li)消費(fei)(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)由12%降(jiang)至5%左右。2012年(nian)以來(lai)，我國GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)、“三駕馬車”增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)持續放緩。電力(li)消費(fei)(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)也降(jiang)至“中速(su)(su)”，電力(li)消費(fei)(fei)的中樞平臺(tai)區(qu)出(chu)現(xian)換(huan)擋(dang)，數據顯示(shi)2003～2011年(nian)，我國電力(li)消費(fei)(fei)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)超(chao)過12%，2012～2019年(nian)，電力(li)消費(fei)(fei)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)降(jiang)至5.0%左右。
如(ru)不(bu)考慮新冠(guan)肺炎疫情，2020年預計我國GDP年均(jun)增(zeng)長(chang)6.1%左右。主(zhu)要考慮：第(di)(di)一，制造業投(tou)資(zi)依然(ran)受到(dao)(dao)去杠(gang)桿后遺癥影(ying)(ying)響，設備(bei)和庫存(cun)投(tou)資(zi)均(jun)處(chu)于收縮狀態(tai)。房地(di)產(chan)市(shi)(shi)場仍將(jiang)受到(dao)(dao)嚴格調控(kong)，2020年房地(di)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)韌性存(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)較(jiao)大壓力(li)，預計2020年全(quan)(quan)年房地(di)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)增(zeng)速(su)將(jiang)略低(di)(di)于2019年。基(ji)建投(tou)資(zi)將(jiang)是(shi)相對(dui)亮點，盡管(guan)基(ji)建投(tou)資(zi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2019年全(quan)(quan)年增(zeng)速(su)較(jiao)低(di)(di)，但(dan)2020年將(jiang)在(zai)(zai)(zai)積極(ji)財政政策以及專項債(zhai)發行(xing)的(de)推動(dong)下出(chu)(chu)現明顯的(de)反(fan)轉(zhuan)。綜(zong)合來(lai)看(kan)，投(tou)資(zi)到(dao)(dao)位(wei)(wei)資(zi)金以及意向投(tou)資(zi)資(zi)金增(zeng)長(chang)緩慢(man)，投(tou)資(zi)增(zeng)速(su)將(jiang)保持(chi)低(di)(di)位(wei)(wei)。第(di)(di)二，未來(lai)短期內，消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)極(ji)易(yi)受到(dao)(dao)宏觀環境的(de)影(ying)(ying)響而(er)繼(ji)續減(jian)少，更為重要的(de)是(shi)，消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)的(de)承(cheng)壓還可能受到(dao)(dao)房地(di)產(chan)市(shi)(shi)場的(de)嚴格調控(kong)而(er)進一步加劇，居民財富(fu)效(xiao)應(ying)弱(ruo)化(hua)，消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)行(xing)為也相應(ying)趨(qu)于保守(shou)。此外消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)增(zeng)長(chang)還面臨著主(zhu)要消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)品種增(zeng)長(chang)乏力(li)、消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)潛力(li)不(bu)足(zu)等諸多不(bu)利(li)因素，消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)增(zeng)速(su)將(jiang)維持(chi)低(di)(di)位(wei)(wei)。第(di)(di)三，全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)經濟體(ti)復(fu)蘇態(tai)勢將(jiang)有所放緩，2019年全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)主(zhu)要經濟體(ti)的(de)出(chu)(chu)口(kou)均(jun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)下滑，2020年雖然(ran)全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)貿(mao)易(yi)需求有望增(zeng)加、中(zhong)美經貿(mao)摩擦趨(qu)緩，但(dan)考慮到(dao)(dao)搶出(chu)(chu)口(kou)效(xiao)應(ying)結束后，出(chu)(chu)口(kou)對(dui)經濟的(de)貢(gong)獻(xian)可能繼(ji)續減(jian)弱(ruo)，對(dui)外貿(mao)易(yi)增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)動(dong)力(li)仍不(bu)足(zu)。
（二）在不考慮疫情的前提下，PPI上半年可能處于下降區間，下半年有望逐步微弱轉正
PPI變化影響(xiang)了電(dian)力(li)消(xiao)費的(de)波(bo)動(dong)幅度。從(cong)細(xi)分用(yong)(yong)電(dian)部門來看，工(gong)業部門是用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量的(de)主(zhu)體，盡管近(jin)年來工(gong)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)占全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量的(de)比(bi)重持續下降，但仍高達(da)68%左右(you)；與此(ci)(ci)同(tong)時(shi)，工(gong)業增加值占GDP的(de)比(bi)重較(jiao)低(di)，目(mu)前僅(jin)為34%左右(you)。因此(ci)(ci)，工(gong)業生(sheng)產的(de)波(bo)動(dong)對(dui)電(dian)力(li)消(xiao)費總量的(de)影響(xiang)遠遠大(da)于對(dui)GDP增長的(de)沖擊。這使得全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量圍(wei)繞(rao)著“中(zhong)樞平臺區”大(da)幅波(bo)動(dong)，如2015年底(di)～2017年中(zhong)，隨著供(gong)給側結構性改革的(de)落實落地，PPI指數快速攀(pan)升，全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量增速也逐年提升。
如不考慮(lv)新冠肺炎疫情，2020年(nian)預計我(wo)(wo)國(guo)PPI上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)可能仍(reng)處(chu)于下(xia)(xia)降區(qu)間，下(xia)(xia)半(ban)年(nian)有望逐步微弱轉(zhuan)正(zheng)。主(zhu)要考慮(lv)：第一(yi)，石油、煤(mei)炭及其他(ta)燃料加工業(ye)是(shi)對PPI變(bian)化(hua)貢獻度最大(da)的行業(ye)，我(wo)(wo)國(guo)原油進口(kou)量(liang)大(da)，依賴進口(kou)已達70.9%。目(mu)前來看，國(guo)際(ji)油價或將維持區(qu)間震蕩格局。第二，目(mu)前工業(ye)產成品(pin)庫存已經(jing)接(jie)近(jin)歷史低(di)位，PPI大(da)概(gai)率已經(jing)出現階段(duan)性(xing)的底部，庫存周期(qi)可能會從主(zhu)動(dong)去(qu)(qu)庫存向被動(dong)去(qu)(qu)庫存演變(bian)，PPI會小(xiao)幅回升(sheng)。第三，考慮(lv)到經(jing)濟需(xu)求仍(reng)總體放(fang)緩，工業(ye)品(pin)漲價動(dong)力依然不足，PPI缺乏大(da)幅上(shang)行動(dong)力。
三
新冠肺炎疫情沖擊情景下，預計2020年電力消費增速區間為3.5%～4.5%
在(zai)對(dui)GDP增長(chang)以及(ji)PPI變化趨勢(shi)進行分析的(de)基(ji)礎上(shang)，基(ji)于課題組開發的(de)考(kao)慮(lv)多因素的(de)年度電(dian)力(li)消(xiao)費預測(ce)模型(xing)，得出無(wu)新(xin)冠肺炎疫情(qing)沖(chong)擊情(qing)景下，如不考(kao)慮(lv)極端氣溫，2020年電(dian)力(li)消(xiao)費將達到(dao)7.56～7.63萬億千瓦時，增速區間為4.5%～5.5%。
突發疫(yi)情將對經(jing)濟(ji)增長(chang)和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)費增長(chang)產生(sheng)顯著的(de)(de)(de)短期(qi)負面沖擊(ji)。以SARS事件為(wei)例，2003年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)我國GDP增速(su)較快，非典疫(yi)情雖(sui)未改(gai)變經(jing)濟(ji)上行趨勢(shi)，但對第二季度(du)經(jing)濟(ji)增長(chang)有(you)明顯的(de)(de)(de)負面沖擊(ji)，主(zhu)要影(ying)響(xiang)了建筑業(ye)、交通(tong)運輸、倉儲、郵電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)訊、批發零售貿易(yi)、餐飲、社(she)會(hui)服(fu)務（旅(lv)游、休閑）等細分(fen)行業(ye)。從電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)費數(shu)據(ju)(ju)來(lai)看(kan)，上述行業(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)費增速(su)同期(qi)大(da)幅下(xia)滑，如2003年(nian)(nian)4月份(fen)，建筑業(ye)、商業(ye)、科教文衛政(zheng)府(fu)機關事業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)分(fen)別下(xia)降9.9%、6.0%、5.0%。考慮到“隔離”治療(liao)是(shi)新冠(guan)肺炎(yan)(yan)(yan)疫(yi)情的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)要治療(liao)思路，避免人口大(da)規模流動和聚集是(shi)新冠(guan)肺炎(yan)(yan)(yan)疫(yi)情的(de)(de)(de)有(you)效(xiao)防控手段，其影(ying)響(xiang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)費的(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)機制主(zhu)要是(shi)節(jie)(jie)(jie)后(hou)延期(qi)復(fu)(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)。因此(ci)，新冠(guan)肺炎(yan)(yan)(yan)疫(yi)情的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)費降低(di)(di)效(xiao)應可類(lei)比為(wei)春(chun)節(jie)(jie)(jie)假期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)費降低(di)(di)效(xiao)應。以2019年(nian)(nian)數(shu)據(ju)(ju)進行測度(du)，通(tong)過(guo)比對月度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)費水(shui)平可知(zhi)，2019年(nian)(nian)春(chun)節(jie)(jie)(jie)假期(qi)累計(ji)(ji)影(ying)響(xiang)全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)495億千瓦時左右。截至2月1日，31個(ge)省（自治區、直轄市）超過(guo)半數(shu)省份(fen)延遲(chi)節(jie)(jie)(jie)后(hou)復(fu)(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)時間(jian)至2月9日，湖北(bei)延遲(chi)節(jie)(jie)(jie)后(hou)復(fu)(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)時間(jian)至2月14日。國家衛健(jian)委高級別專家組組長(chang)鐘南山院(yuan)士(shi)2月2日指出(chu)(chu)，此(ci)次疫(yi)情有(you)望在未來(lai)10天至兩(liang)周左右出(chu)(chu)現高峰(feng)，將顯著影(ying)響(xiang)企業(ye)復(fu)(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)行為(wei)及復(fu)(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)后(hou)的(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)方式。參照無疫(yi)情沖擊(ji)情景下(xia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)費增長(chang)趨勢(shi)，預計(ji)(ji)新冠(guan)肺炎(yan)(yan)(yan)疫(yi)情將影(ying)響(xiang)全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)750億千瓦時左右。
因此，課題組認為，在(zai)新冠肺(fei)炎(yan)疫情(qing)沖擊情(qing)景下，預計2020年(nian)我國(guo)全(quan)社(she)(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速區間降(jiang)至(zhi)為3.5%～4.5%，如進一(yi)(yi)步考慮(lv)復工推遲(chi)的“預期效(xiao)應”，2020年(nian)我國(guo)全(quan)社(she)(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速存在(zai)跌破3%的可(ke)能。分(fen)季(ji)度(du)來(lai)看，2020年(nian)全(quan)社(she)(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)將(jiang)呈現“低位(wei)趨穩、穩中(zhong)有增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)”的態勢，其中(zhong)，第一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du)全(quan)社(she)(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速受新冠肺(fei)炎(yan)疫情(qing)影響較大，第二季(ji)度(du)將(jiang)出(chu)現低位(wei)反彈(dan)，伴(ban)隨著(zhu)PPI企穩回(hui)升(sheng)，第三季(ji)度(du)、第四(si)季(ji)度(du)全(quan)社(she)(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速有望(wang)進一(yi)(yi)步小幅提(ti)升(sheng)。
